Multinomial Distribution

Overview

  • The Multinomial distribution is a generalization of the Binomial distribution to multiple categories.
  • It describes the probability of observing a specific combination of outcomes across multiple categories in a fixed number of trials.

Use Case

  • Used when conducting a fixed number of independent trials with more than two possible outcomes in each trial, such as rolling a multi-sided die or categorizing items into multiple classes.

Formula

  • Probability Mass Function (PMF):
    • : Number of observations in category
    • : Number of observations in category
    • : Probability of category
    • : Total number of trials
    • : Number of categories

Example

  • Dice Rolling:
    • Suppose we roll a fair 6-sided die 10 times.
    • We want to find the probability of getting 2 ones, 3 twos, 4 threes, and 1 four.
    • Let , , , and be the probabilities of each outcome.
    • Using the Multinomial PMF: